{"id":26053,"date":"2026-05-19T12:10:42","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T03:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jore2.com\/ai-9407-are-agi-predictions-extrapolating-the-wrong-axis-entirely\/"},"modified":"2026-05-19T12:10:42","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T03:10:42","slug":"ai-9407-are-agi-predictions-extrapolating-the-wrong-axis-entirely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jore2.com\/?p=26053","title":{"rendered":"AGI \uc608\uce21\uc758 \ucd95\uc774 \ud2c0\ub838\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131: 50 \ub144\uc5d0\uc11c 10 \ub144\uc73c\ub85c \uc555\ucd95\ub41c \ud0c0\uc784\ub77c\uc778\uc758 \uc774\uba74"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"jore2-editor-byline\">\n<p><strong>\uc724\uc9c0\ud6c4<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5\uc758 \ubc94\uc6a9\uc131\uc778 AGI \uac00 \uc5b8\uc81c \ud604\uc2e4\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc774 \uacfc\uac70 50 \ub144\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd5c\uadfc 10 \ub144 \uc774\ub0b4\ub85c \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc555\ucd95\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc0b0\uc5c5\uacc4\uc640 \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \ub728\uac70\uc6b4 \ub17c\uc7c1\uc774 \uc77c\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uba54\ud0c0\ud058\ub7ec\uc2a4 \uac19\uc740 \uc608\uce21 \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74 2020 \ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud574\ub3c4 \uc911\uc704\uac12\uc774 50 \ub144 \ub4a4\ub85c \uc7a1\ud614\ub358 \uc2dc\uc810\uc774 2029 \ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 25% \ud655\ub960, 2033 \ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 50% \ud655\ub960\ub85c \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc548\uc18c\ud53d\uc758 \ub2e4\ub9ac\uc624 \uc544\ubaa8\ub370\uc774 CEO \ub294 2026 \ub144\uc774\ub098 2027 \ub144\uc774\uba74 \uc778\uac04\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac70\uc758 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub09c AI \uac00 \ub4f1\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub2e8\uc5b8\ud558\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \uad6c\uae00 \ub525\ub9c8\uc778\ub4dc\uc758 \ub370\ubbf8\uc2a4 \ud558\uc0ac\ube44\uc2a4\ub294 5 \ub144\uc5d0\uc11c 10 \ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ud0c0\uc784\ub77c\uc778 \ub2e8\ucd95\uc740 \uae30\uc220 \ubc1c\uc804 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \uae30\uc874 \uc0c1\uc2dd\uc744 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ub4a4\uc9d1\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc608\uce21\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc608\uce21\ub4e4\uc774 \uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \uae30\uc900\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. AGI \ub77c\ub294 \uc6a9\uc5b4 \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \uae30\uacc4\uac00 \ub2e8\uc77c \uc791\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ud2b9\ud654\ub41c \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc601\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd94\ub860\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uc9c0\ub2cc \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub97c \ub73b\ud588\uc73c\ub098, \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uac01 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc2e4\uacfc \uc608\uce21\uc790\uac00 \uc774\ub97c \uc815\uc758\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \ucc9c\ucc28\ub9cc\ubcc4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc774\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 \ud0dc\uc2a4\ud06c \uc218\ud589 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 AGI \uc758 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc0bc\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \ub2e4\ub978 \uc774\ub294 \uc778\uac04 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801 \ucd94\ub860 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc815\uc758\uc758 \ubd88\uc77c\uce58\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \uc218\uce58\ub97c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\uad50\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uba70, \ud2b9\uc815 \uc5f0\ub3c4\ub97c \ud655\uc2e0\ud558\ub294 \uc608\uce21\uc740 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc601\uc5c5\uc6a9 \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4\ub294 \ube44\ud310\uc744 \ubc1b\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc9c0\uc624\ud504\ub9ac \ud78c\ud2bc\uc740 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc608\uce21\uc744 50 \ub144\uc5d0\uc11c 5 \ub144\uc5d0\uc11c 20 \ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\ub85c \uc218\uc815\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc778\uac04 \uba78\uc885 \ud655\ub960\uc744 10% \uc5d0\uc11c 20% \uc0ac\uc774\ub85c \ub0ae\uac8c \uc7a1\ub294 \ub4f1, \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc131\ucde8\uc640 \uc0ac\ud68c\uc801 \ud30c\uae09\ub825\uc744 \ubcc4\uac1c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \uc628\ub77c\uc778 \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ud2f0\uc640 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc798\ubabb\ub41c \ucd95\uc744 \ub530\ub77c \uc678\uc0bd\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub290\ub0d0\ub294 \uc9c0\uc801\uc774 \uc81c\uae30\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989, \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc131\ub2a5 \ud5a5\uc0c1 \uace1\uc120\uc744 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \ubbf8\ub798\ub85c \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 AGI \uc758 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc801 \ub3c4\uc57d\uc744 \uc81c\ub300\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\uac01\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc544\ud0a4\ud14d\ucc98\uac00 AGI \uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud55c\uacc4\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc744 \ud3b4\ub294 \uc57c\ub2cc \ub974\ucfe4\uc774\ub098 \uac8c\ub9ac \ub9c8\ucee4\uc2a4 \uac19\uc740 \ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2dc\uac01\ub3c4 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc5b8\uc5b4 \ubaa8\ub378 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc9c4\uc815\ud55c \ubc94\uc6a9 \uc9c0\ub2a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc778 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uba70, \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uc5f0\uc0b0\ub7c9 \uc99d\uac00\ub098 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ucd95\uc801\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc124\uba85\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc9c0\uc810\uc774 \uc874\uc7ac\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc608\uce21\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ubc34\ub4dc\ub97c \ub113\uac8c \uc7a1\uc544\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc778 \uc870\uc5b8\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc5f0\ub3c4\ub97c \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, AGI \uc900\ube44\ub3c4\ub97c \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \ub3c4\ucc29\uc77c\uc744 \ub9f9\uc2e0\ud558\ub294 \ud0dc\ub3c4\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294, \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uac00\uc815\ud558\uace0 \uc720\uc5f0\ud558\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc810\uc740 AGI \uc758 \uc815\uc758\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc218\ub834\ub420 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud604\uc7ac \uc8fc\ub958\uc778 \uc544\ud0a4\ud14d\ucc98\uac00 \ud55c\uacc4\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub52a\ud788\uba74\uc11c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784\uc774 \ub4f1\uc7a5\ud560\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc774 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0 \uae30\uc5c5\uacfc \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 \ub0a0\uc9dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ubab0\ub418\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4, \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \uc0b4\ud53c\uba70 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ud0dc\ub3c4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 AGI \ub3c4\ub798 \uc608\uce21\uc774 50 \ub144\uc5d0\uc11c 10 \ub144 \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ub2e8\ucd95\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud63c\ub780\uc774 \uac00\uc911\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc608\uce21\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \ucd95\uc774 \uc798\ubabb \uc124\uc815\ub418\uc5c8\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c0\uc801\uc774 \uc81c\uae30\ub418\uba70, \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uc18d\ub3c4\uc804\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc815\uc758\uc758 \ubaa8\ud638\uc131\uacfc \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uad00\ub9ac\uac00 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc2dc\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ubaa8\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26052,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8858],"tags":[11422,244,19457,19456,13],"class_list":["post-26053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai","tag-agi","tag-244","tag-19457","tag-19456","tag-13"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163.jpg",1280,720,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163-300x169.jpg",300,169,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163-768x432.jpg",640,360,true],"large":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163-1024x576.jpg",640,360,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163.jpg",1280,720,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163.jpg",1280,720,false],"morenews-large":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163-825x575.jpg",825,575,true],"morenews-medium":["https:\/\/jore2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0000085297-002-20220728120203163-590x410.jpg",590,410,true]},"author_info":{"info":["\uc724\uc9c0\ud6c4"]},"category_info":"<a 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